By M. Ray Perryman
The year is 2050 in this tale of two counties — Ector and Rejector. “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. It was the age of wisdom; it was the age of foolishness.” The two counties were one and the same from 1887 until 2023, when they began to diverge.
In the latter days of 2023, Ector County ISD (ECISD) enrolled more than 33,500 students in its elementary, middle, and high schools. They represented the future of the area — its hopes, its dreams, and its destiny. Thousands of dedicated teachers, administrators, and support personnel strove to meet their educational needs, and the results were impressive. Graduation rates and school rankings soared.
The County was positioned in the heart of the Permian Basin, home to the world’s richest endowment of low-carbon oil and natural gas reserves. Only a week earlier, the U.S. Department of Energy had verified that these resources would be demanded in even greater quantities for decades to come.
The County was projected to require about 60,000 new workers by 2050 due to expansion and replacements; the larger region would need many more. These students and those to come would provide much of this workforce. A substantial portion of the jobs would involve skills that were attainable through career training opportunities available in ECISD.
Unfortunately, the facilities in the District in late 2023 were outdated, inadequate for the number of students, and required significant safety upgrades. The career and technical training resources were insufficient to meet exploding demand, and many assets needed to support athletics and fine arts (which promote academic performance and career achievement) were lacking.
In the midst of these concerns, a silver lining emerged. The State of Texas passed legislation compressing rates and allowing a substantial reduction in school property taxes — an outcome made possible in no small measure by the bounty of fiscal revenue provided by the region’s oil and gas production. ECISD embraced this measure and reduced its tax levies accordingly. Effective management had increased cash assets and allowed early retirement of existing debt, saving tens of millions of dollars in interest payments.
As a consequence of these fortuitous circumstances, it became feasible to implement three propositions that would facilitate a modern career and technical center to expand these programs, a new middle school in a growing segment of the District, needed safety upgrades across all campuses, and key improvements in athletic and fine arts infrastructure. These investments could be accomplished with no increase in taxes, even as levies for ongoing operations declined. This package certainly would not solve all of the issues confronting the District, but would represent tremendous progress.
Faced with this incredible opportunity, the citizens of Ector County embraced it, while those of Rejector County did not. As a result, times changed, fortunes diverged, and our tale of two counties began.
By 2050, Ector County had enjoyed $11.1 billion more in additional output than Rejector County since 2023, an average of over $410 million per year. Residents had earned $6.8 billion more income than those in Rejector County, an average of more than $1,000 per year for every adult and child. Because of its superior economic performance, Ector County created about 1,700 more jobs than its woeful counterpart.
Local governments in Ector County had received approximately $3 billion in additional revenues solely due to increased activity to support infrastructure, public safety, parks, and other amenities which enhance the lives of all citizens. Simultaneously, Rejector County incurred almost $500 million in additional social costs (such as indigent health care, homelessness, poverty, and incarceration). Viewed more broadly, Ector County had a vibrant economy vital to the production of energy resources critical to global progress, while Rejector County was an impediment to regional expansion.
These projections are derived from a model routinely used for public investment evaluation by the U.S. Department of Education and numerous other federal agencies, as well as scores of state legislative bodies (including Texas). It is localized to the specific characteristics of Ector County. It reflects the fact that investments in public education generate returns well above this of any other outlays.
With the adoption of the three propositions, Ector County exhibited the best of times and the age of wisdom, while Rejector County embodied the worst of times and the age of foolishness. The contrast is stark, but very real. Enhancing the prospects for our children is more than sufficient reason to support this initiative, but the stakes are immeasurably higher.
If we adopt these three propositions, we will be able to say to the children of Ector County (and their children), the community, and the entire region, “It is a far, far better thing that we do than we have ever done.”
