So, which is it, will a stronger dollar de-rail the oil and metals from any further rally?
What we really have here is a balancing act. Investors GBTC the Bitcoin Investment Trust to $37.50 last December. Since then it has fallen to $10. It rose from the April low to $15.247 as I write this Thursday. What is going on in fact is a balancing act as three players vie for currency domination.
The three players would be the new crypto currencies, traditional fiat paper currencies such as the Euro and the US Dollar, and gold.
As bitcoin has risen 50% in a month, gold has fallen back from $1,370 to $1,305. The rise in the Dollar Index from 89 to 92 (plus) has also pressured gold to fall in price.
Bottom line is that one must examine the interplay of all three. The US Dollar has not really quite reversed its downtrend. But if the increase continues gold and oil will struggle to go higher.
This will also affect the Emerging Economies, most of which are commodity exporters.
Remember that oil is priced in dollars. The falling dollar last year helped boost the price of gold. Now the rising dollar pressures oil from rising higher. Oil bottomed last July at $42 and has since risen to $68. The ETF for oil is USO. It has risen from below $10 to $13.81.
The relative poor performance of XES in the Energy Service sector is still bothersome. While oil has risen to a three year high, XES remains uncomfortably close to its 2009 year low.
The Energy ETF XLE has hit resistance at $75 for the fourth time in the last three years. The dollar strength appears to be keeping it in check.
The stock market has marked time moving sideways since its late January high at 26,600. This Thursday it has exhibited a large 400 (plus) point range. The February low was about 23,330. The low today was 23,531. This is the third bounce near the February low. I speculate that is 23,330 goes, a slew of stop sell orders will take the market lower.
This column has warned of the dangers of letting loose trade war talk. The U.S. Trade Delegation has arrived in Beijing. But it is not at all clear what they want. The Administration has already renounced one deal the Chinese had agreed on. The President will want to appear firm now that he is in office for life. That does not bode well for 23,300 to hold.
