According to McKenzie, the Taliban and U.S. share a “common purpose” of finishing the ongoing evacuation mission by August 31.
General Kenneth McKenzie US Central Command
Do you find that reassuring? No criticism of the Marine General implied. The Presidential Press Secretary as I write is announcing we do not trust the Taliban.
Over the last few weeks we have noted that there is not enough positive social mood to support current high stock prices. With the crowded conditions at the Kabul Airport, it made a perfect target for a suicide bomber. Before the US even left by August 31, ISIS K is back. The idea was to deny terrorists an entire country from which to plan world-wide mayhem. That goal is gone. Hard to imagine we will take out terrorists as we are literally run out of town on the Taliban deadline.
We thought oil prices were headed to the mid 50s. But prices reversed at the low 60s level. As I write Thursday oil crept up 38 cents to $67.78. Energy shares are off recent highs. Bell weather Apache has fallen from 24.30 to 17.70.
Natural gas prices spiked today up 7.29% to $4.20. There is tremendous demand in the Far East and this is a bonus for US gas producers.
The single most reliable stock market indicator is the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line. It peaked at the end of June. It has been sideways since. The percent of stocks over the 200 day MA in the S&P 500 has dropped from 96% in April to 80% today. This indicates breadth is declining while new highs are being seen in various indexes. This means fewer stocks are supporting the move up.
All of this supports our idea that stocks indexes will decline into the seasonal weakness of this fall.
