When the House of Representatives passed landmark climate legislation last Friday, President Joe Biden chalked up one of the surprise successes of his presidency. Only last month his ambitious agenda appeared sunk after a conservative Democrat and coal baron, Joe Manchin, refused to back it. His vote is crucial in an evenly divided Senate. However, the climate proposals were largely resurrected in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), co-authored by Mr. Manchin, which Congress approved.
The first major U.S. climate law comes not a moment too soon. It is the country’s best and last opportunity to meet its goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and, with it, a world where net zero by mid-century is possible. After Donald Trump, Mr. Biden can reclaim the mantle of global climate leadership for the U.S.. But the act reveals the limits of his power.
The Democrats’ initial $3.5tn plan was to expand education, fight poverty, lower healthcare costs and tackle climate change. That was whittled down to a $1.75tn bill that the House passed last year. But it got nowhere in the Senate. Mr. Manchin refused to back the social security programs and his centrist colleague Kyrsten Sinema refused to back the tax rises. What was left was $490bn in climate and healthcare investments.
This deserves a small cheer from progressives. Mr. Biden is pursuing a muscular policy of state intervention in the economy. The act for the first time gives the federal government the power to negotiate lower drug prices. Significantly for the climate, it represents a new U.S. industrial policy that subsidizes zero-carbon power production via tax credits. It also recognizes that the U.S. is falling behind China in green technology — spending $152bn less on renewable investments last year – and focuses on ways to encourage clean-energy manufacturing.
Politics in the U.S. is unfortunately far too influenced by the power of vested interests. The U.S. remains addicted to fossil fuels, which generate 61% of its electricity. Its shale gas industry is looking to replace Russia as the major energy supplier to Europe. The upshot was that fossil fuel lobbyists won concessions in the climate legislation. The compromise means linking renewable development to new oil and gas extraction for which many communities will bear the disproportionate cost.
Nevertheless, for every one ton of emissions caused by the act’s fossil fuel provisions, the non-partisan Energy Innovation think tank says 24 tons of emissions are avoided by its green provisions. This ought to help energize Mr. Biden’s base ahead of the midterm elections. Despite Republican antagonism, climate action enjoys broad support in the US. A Pew Research Center poll suggests that 58% of voters think the federal government is doing too little to “reduce the effects of global climate change, compared with just 18% who say it is doing too much”.
To be a truly transformative president, Mr. Biden will need to remake society. What the act demonstrates is that he does not have the votes – yet – in his own party for such a program. Mr. Biden’s climate plans may fall short because he is relying on the carrot of spending rather than the stick of taxes to underpin an energy transition. Yet the wasteful consumption of the wealthy will have to be reduced with progressive taxation to make resources available for socially-useful spending. Ultimately the climate emergency needs a fundamental economic restructuring. Mr. Biden’s new environmental law is a good start, but there’s a very long way to go.
The Guardian
