The most recent Perryman Economic Forecast for the U.S. and Texas calls for growth through 2028, though the path will likely be somewhat uneven.
According to Dr. Ray Perryman, President and CEO of The Perryman Group, “The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, continuing to expand in spite of major challenges. It appears as if the Federal Reserve will be able to reduce target interest rates in the months to come, which will provide a boost to a number of industries from housing to banking. The biggest risk as I see it is a major escalation in the war in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, or one of the other hot spots. Barring such a shock to the global economy, prospects for expansion are good. There are challenges with regard to commercial real estate loans, but they should be manageable.”
Output (real gross product) in the U.S. is expected to grow at a 2.65% annual pace, reaching a level of $23.3 trillion in 2028. Some 13.9 million net new jobs are forecast to be added, bringing total 2028 employment to 170.0 million.
The Texas economy continues to perform better than other areas, adding jobs month after month. “The dynamic Texas economy is generating opportunities for individuals and businesses alike,” Perryman said in a news release. “The state is not immune to the national situation, and our largest export sector – oil and gas – is highly sensitive to global demand. Even so, Texas is well positioned for the future, with an expanding workforce due to both our demographic situation and by attracting in-migration from other states.”
An estimated 1.6 million net new wage and salary jobs are expected for the Texas economy by 2028, a 2.17% annual rate of expansion during the period.
For the Odessa area, The Perryman Group projects that about 8,230 wage and salary jobs will be added by 2028, representing an annual rate of increase of 1.91%.
More information about this forecast is available at www.perrymangroup.com.
