A weekly close below 32,573 on the Dow Industrials will turn that weekly trend down.
There has not been a lot new to say since the DJIA topped December 13, 2022 around 34,400. While the media hangs on every news event, our bedrock is the Elliott Wave Pattern. It topped for various stock indexes between November, 2021 and January, 2022. It then fell to a low last summer. The 34,400 high in December was the second wave of the sequence. We have been waiting since then for the other indexes to top out. That is happening now. As I write this Friday morning the DJIA is trading at 32,204 even on a good jobs report. It appears then that we will have a weekly reversal unless a 400 point rally develops.
Important: IF our analysis is correct, the larger third wave down has or will shortly begin across various stock indexes. Mr. ‘watch me’ Joe Biden is totally unaware of the danger this poses for his campaign. He thinks he will use it to get another victory over Trump even as serious challengers emerge for Trump. A big drop in the stock market will make a Biden win very difficult.
Our closed end municipal funds made lows last week and are climbing in price again today. Last week we recommended Nustar NS which owns pipelines in the Permian Basin and elsewhere. It has risen a dollar to $16.50. Forward dividend yield is a healthy 9.86%.
Crude oil itself remains range-bound at $76.52. All the bullish predictions for natural gas were wrong. It bottomed Feb 21 and now trades at $2.62. That is well down from its high near $6 last year. This makes the ETF UNG a long term buy and hold at $8.18.
Even if Joe Biden and John Kerry do not believe it, the world is waking out of the climate change stupor. Large industrial economies need reliable energy which can easily match supply with demand. Germany has re-discovered coal. The wind does not always blow and the sun does not shine at night, all hail coal.
Breaking News: Authorities close Silicon Valley Bank in California. This has rallied Treasury bonds 18 basis points and hit major banks stocks hard. This is the sort of out of the blue type event that often accompanies stock market reversals.
