ELAM: A short stock rally ahead

The Report shows 315,00 new jobs were created this past month. Now if someone could just create 315,000 people who want to work…

Let’s discuss several topics today. First, Mitch Daniels, President of Purdue University, has a great op-ed in today’s WSJ. He notes that tuition and fees at his school have not risen since 2012. Average student debt is $3,000. Instead of billions of loan forgiveness, how about requiring all the other universities to follow Purdue’s model? Another idea floated this week is to loan money to the University which would then be on the hook for re-payment to the Feds. That might result is some scrutiny of the student borrower.

Stocks fell 4.2% in August. And for four of the last five days. We are due for a short rally in stocks. A mid-September high is expected. But then the bear market will likely resume. The early stages of a bear market involve denial, which is where we are now.

Positive mood originating in the Reagan recovery of 1982 has propelled the market to the 36,000 high. But negative mood was on vivid display as President Biden made an unprecedented attack on former President Trump and his supporters. Mayors in New York and Chicago are astonished the Texas Governor has taken them up on their Sanctuary City Pledge. There is no Southern Border. The EU economies slow having outsourced their energy requirements to the Climate Crowd and Putin. Expect mood to trend in a far more negative fashion if it is already on boil at DJIA 32,000.

It appears that William Devane may finally be right in those gold and silver ads on cable television. Silver has fallen from $27 in March to just under $18 Thursday. It has reversed today. Coeur and Hecla Mining have reversed to the upside this morning. As previously mentioned in this space, I suspect this is a long term low in metal prices. World bankers want a digital currency. Expect the hard money crowd to put up a fight which starts today. Gold and silver mining shares look very attractive at this level.

Crude oil and natural gas remain at elevated prices. I see more reports that only 7% of our USA energy comes from wind or solar. And the rare earth metals needs to an electric car are mostly found in China. The move to jump to all electric car fleets in the next few years will not happen. It is not economical and as EU is learning, nuclear and carbon fuels are quite reliable.