Despite economic headwinds such as inflation, interest rates and supply chain issues, economist Ray Perryman is predicting continued expansion in the Permian Basin driven largely by the oil and gas industry.
“I expect economic growth to slow next year in the national economy, with the local area being somewhat insulated. Over the next five years, we expect solid growth at the national, state, and local levels,” Perryman said in an email.
At his recent Perryman Economic Outlook Conference at the Odessa Marriott Hotel & Conference Center, Perryman said he talked extensively about the long-term demand for oil and gas, the positive role the Permian Basin will play in the future of global energy supplies, climate initiatives and reducing world poverty, he wrote.
“As the center for one of the most important reserves of oil and natural gas in the world, the Permian Basin economy has recently experienced strong growth as market conditions have spurred additional activity in the energy sector,” a handout from the conference said.
It adds that current price levels support continued expansion “and ongoing geopolitical risk and demand growth in emerging nations will work to increase emphasis on the domestic industry in the future. Despite recent economic headwinds and policy challenges, The Perryman Group’s projections indicate expansion over an extended time horizon, the handout said.
On the Ector County ISD bond issue, Perryman previously called it a “down payment on our destiny.”
“That hasn’t changed. I went into considerable detail at the conference in explaining why investing in the education of our young people is the single most important thing that we can do for our future,” Perryman said.
“The region currently faces a shortage of about 9,000 skilled workers and the adult literacy rate is 31%. The need for future skilled workers due to growth, retirements, and technology shifts will escalate rapidly. We cannot achieve our economic potential without developing our human resources,” he said.
He added that Scott Muri is an “outstanding superintendent.”
“We have a committed school board and a team of dedicated faculty and staff. We have made great strides, as reflected in recent rankings. Unfortunately, we have severe space shortages, antiquated facilities and technology deficiencies that must be addressed,” Perryman said.
Nelson Mandela once said, “The true character of a society is revealed in how it treats its children.”
“Our kids deserve to have great educational opportunities and our community will see the benefits of investing in education at all levels many times over,” Perryman wrote.
Asked about the proposed behavioral health hospital, Perryman said there is no doubt the Basin needs additional mental health capacity.
An analysis by The Perryman Group says thousands of people in the Permian Basin are “struggling with severe mental health issues.”
A 2016 study on Midland County mental health systems estimated about one in four county residents (41,000 people) experience some level of mental health need each year.
“While the majority of these people can be effectively treated in primary care with specialist consults as needed, about 4,600 adults and 2,200 children have more severe needs for treatment. Similar prevalence numbers are likely across the Permian Basin,” information from Perryman said.
On the much talked about academic medical facility, Perryman said, “that is the type of complex initiative that I would want to analyze thoroughly before forming any definitive opinions.”
“While enhanced health resources are generally beneficial to any area, it appears that the idea of combining the hospital districts could potentially pose both structural issues as well as questions of capacity and access for critical health services. My firm worked extensively on both the development of the Dell Medical School at UT Austin and the ongoing creation of a medical school by the UT System in Tyler. In both instances, the plans involved partnering and working with existing local health care providers to optimize resources. That model seems to work well,” he wrote.
