ELAM: Is this the home stretch?

Wall Street aims for 2 Day Win Streak Amid Inflation Fears

Yahoo finance Friday morning

Crude oil has been tracing out what appears for be a topping pattern since early March. Pent up demand drove price from the November low of $35 to $67.50. Price dipped ten dollars and is now back to $63.38.  That is up $1.44 from the Thursday close. But momentum indicators are falling.  On balance volume has topped.  Momentum oscillators are much lower now than where they were during March.

The Energy ETF XLE made a slightly higher high this month than in March. That is no doubt to continued stock market enthusiasm.  Energy Service ETF XES is much weaker which is not a good sign. It peaked at $65 in March and then fell to $47.50. After a rise to $60 it is falling again to $57.

But the DJIA is up 258 points this morning after its two week correction. This momentum will likely carry the overall stock market to a slight new high in June.

Team Biden wants all of us to drive an electric car. Apparently this administration thinks energy is free and easy if supplied to an electric car rather than a combustion engine. We just experienced a crack in the electric grid with a snow fall in Texas that would have been ignored in say Chicago. Here in San Antonio CPS Energy says the natural gas suppliers are playing hardball. The suppliers note CPS is not paying the bill. Is this really the right backdrop for eliminating gasoline power cars and trucks? President Biden was given a ride in a Ford electric pick-up.

Ford claims a 300-mile range a $50,000 price tag, and 563 horsepower.  But frankly I like my eleven year old paid for SUV just fine. A $50 K electric is not on my horizon.  I still think short distance electric vehicles adapted from say a Kawasaki Mule would make a lot more sense. Use the IC car which can be easily re-fueled to drive outside the city.

Social mood continues to veer negative. It appears the multi-trillion dollar Biden stimulus package will fail. San Antonio is plastered with Help Wanted signs as previous workers enjoy Federal payments. Stephen Moore’s prediction of several million not working may already be upon us.