ELAM: A bit of sanity on climate change

Market forces are already moving electricity suppliers away from fossil fuels, why pay them to do what they are already doing?

Senator Joe Manchin, D – West Virginia

Notably he is head of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Seven Texas Democrats sent a letter to Nancy Pelosi expressing their concern at the potential elimination of thousands of Texas energy jobs.

Last week we noted the difficulty of navigating (literally) Louisiana flood waters in an electric vehicle. And with power lines down shutting the grid, it would be impossible to recharge a vehicle. Another renewable warning emerged from the UK this week. It seems the wind stopped blowing across the North Sea, idling all those windmills. Prices for a megawatt hour soared from 20 euros in January to over 60 euros now. And, of course, there is far less carbon fuel being stored or shipped to back up solar/wind. The result is that businesses have halted production. This certainly highlights the real danger of discarding a workable fuel source dating back to the 1850s.

All that and production shut down since Hurricane Ida has firmed the oil price at just over $70.

We have noted the growing evidence of negative social mood does not support the frothy stock prices. Consider these headlines from an internet news source one day this week. French Furious at Biden for Cutting Them out of Sub Deal / Chinese state run paper claims warships could soon near Hawaii / Japan defense minister draws red line in island dispute with China / As Merkel prepares to leave office, many think Germanys ‘gold age’ is over. Given this lurch to negative mood it is not surprising that the headline to all this was – Stocks Turn Sour.

And no wonder, Andy Kessler noted these valuations last Monday. Carvana is worth more than Volvo, Honda, or Ford. Tesla is worth more than the next nine car manufacturers combined. Airbnb is worth more than Marriott and Hilton, combined. AMC theater stock has soared from $2 to $50, but is anyone at the theater in this day of on-line streaming?

It may be that stock prices finally peaked the last few months. We are oversold short term, looking for a bounce next week and then a resumption of the decline. A close under $30 for FNGS will turn the FANG trend down.

Governor Newsome beat back lead challenger Larry Elder by portraying him as a Trump clone, why bother with issues or policy. That is now seen as the winning ticket for Dems in 2022 and 2024. So don’t expect any across the aisle cooperation. Mood is trending negative.