• September 25, 2020

Odessa American: Dennis Elam

Dennis Elam

ELAM: Fooled by randomness

Nassim Nicholas Taleb advocates a ‘black swan robust society.’ This means a society that can withstand difficult to predict events. His metaphor of a Black Swan is an unexpected or difficult to imagine event. For centuries it was believed all swans were white, until a black swan was discovered in Australia.

Sunday 09/13/2020
ELAM: The Bear emerges from hiding
Posted: September 13, 2020

U.S. oil prices have slid 12% since the end of August, and on Tuesday notched their biggest one- day drop since June.

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Sunday 09/06/2020
ELAM: The Buffet Indicator kicks in
Posted: September 06, 2020

The tech heavy NASD Composite dropped nearly 5%, its biggest one day percentage decline since June 11 in a reversal of a rally that has taken the S & P to new highs.

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Sunday 08/30/2020
ELAM: A high wire act
Posted: August 30, 2020

We have consistently warned that the market is a high wire act, the stock averages are pushed higher by fewer and fewer stocks with heavy weights in the averages. Here are some examples.

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Sunday 08/23/2020
ELAM: Rally likely to extend to September
Posted: August 23, 2020

Tesla (TSLA) shares extended gains to hit a fresh record intraday high, after the electric car-maker’s stock rallied above $2,000 per share for the first time ever and brought its year to date advance to more than 370%. Apple (AAPL) shares hit a record intraday high, solidifying its market capitalization at more than $2 trillion.

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Sunday 08/16/2020
ELAM: Multiple Markets Topping
Posted: August 16, 2020

In June, the editors of Commentary called this combination of mob violence, cultural torment, and public intimidation “the great unraveling.” Since then, things have gotten appreciably worse.

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Sunday 08/09/2020
ELAM: Soaring valuations, what could go wrong?
Posted: August 09, 2020

Apple’s market valuation is $1.9 trillion-bigger than the GDP of Canada, Russia, or Spain. Apple is now the world’s largest company and dominates the smartphone market. Tesla’s valuation is now larger than all other automakers. Tesla is worth $266 billion, GM a mere $50B.

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Sunday 08/02/2020
ELAM: Steepest GDP decline in 70 years
Posted: August 02, 2020

GDP fell at a 32.9% annual rate in the second quarter, the steepest decline in 70 years of record keeping

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Sunday 07/26/2020
ELAM: Short term top
Posted: July 26, 2020

Last week we noted that there was an over supply of oil and nowhere to store it compounded by lack of demand via autos, cruise ships, and airliners. So we predicted oil would advance in price.

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Sunday 07/19/2020
ELAM: Stocks, oil put in short term top
Posted: July 19, 2020

Energy and Energy service firms are forever expanding at high oil prices and throwing in the towel laying off trained personnel, at low prices. Here we go again.

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Sunday 07/12/2020
ELAM: A surprising market leader
Posted: July 12, 2020

Optimism has spurred mainland Chinese stocks to multiyear highs in recent days with the Shanghai Composite rising 16.5% over eight straight sessions of gains.

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Sunday 07/05/2020
ELAM: Economy is on the mend
Posted: July 05, 2020

Five Million new jobs were created in May, record numbers

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Sunday 06/28/2020
ELAM: Important test ahead for markets
Posted: June 28, 2020

FED Sets Caps on Bank Payouts amid $700 B Loss Threat

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Wednesday 06/24/2020
ELAM: Markets begin next leg down
Posted: June 24, 2020

The long bull market topped Feb. 12 and the first leg down to DJIA 18,000 ended March 23.

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Sunday 06/21/2020
ELAM: Stock prices not as high as you think
Posted: June 21, 2020

Major stock indexes have climbed 40% from their March lows. But the march has been uneven.

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Sunday 06/14/2020
ELAM: Wave three down begins
Posted: June 14, 2020

So despite watching our cities burn down on the evening news reports, the stock and oil markets follow their own course. Markets are soaring despite the negative mood on television and lost businesses to mob violence. This is a dangerous combination in defiance of social mood theory. Be careful out there.

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Sunday 05/31/2020
ELAM: Negative mood on the rise
Posted: May 31, 2020

More than 40 million Americans, the equivalent of one worker in four, have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic began in mid March.

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Sunday 05/24/2020
ELAM: Texas reopens
Posted: May 24, 2020

Never Fight the FED

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Sunday 05/17/2020
ELAM: What is really wrong?
Posted: May 17, 2020

About 36.5 million people have filed unemployment applications in the past eight weeks.

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Sunday 05/10/2020
ELAM: Virus ripples higher ed
Posted: May 10, 2020

The world economy has been slowing at least since the 2007-09 financial crisis. The virus shut down has reduced unemployment to 1930 levels. Let’s take a quick look.

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Sunday 05/03/2020
ELAM: Depends on What You think is Normal
Posted: May 03, 2020

When do you think things will return to normal?

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Sunday 04/26/2020
ELAM: Narrowing breadth and an interdependent economy
Posted: April 26, 2020

Despite a recent run up in stock prices for large, mainly tech-based stocks, there is continued carnage beneath the surface of indices. The five largest stocks make up over 20 percent of the S&P, the highest level in decades, and their combined worth is equal to the bottom 350 companies in the S&P combined. While the S&P is down just under 15 percent for the year, the equal-weighted index is down almost 25 percent, and the small-cap index is down over 35 percent.

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Tuesday 04/21/2020
ELAM: Crude oil kicks off deflationary spiral
Posted: April 21, 2020

Definition of McGuffin

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Sunday 04/19/2020
ELAM: Oil cracks $20, stocks continue rally
Posted: April 19, 2020

The oil market is currently undergoing a historic shock that is abrupt, extreme and at global scale.

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Sunday 04/12/2020
ELAM: Counter-trend rally ending
Posted: April 12, 2020

Let’s begin with a few anecdotal statistics.

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Sunday 04/05/2020
ELAM: Oil prices bounce big as talks mount
Posted: April 05, 2020

Even with OPEC on board that is a phenomenal amount of oil and it will be very difficult to get everyone on board.

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Sunday 03/29/2020
ELAM: Oil prices still pressured
Posted: March 29, 2020

Never let a crisis go to waste.

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Sunday 03/22/2020
ELAM: Don’t get complacent quite yet
Posted: March 22, 2020

What I am trying to do is prevent the oil and gas sector from disappearing over the next 18 months

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Sunday 03/15/2020
ELAM: What happened to my 401K?
Posted: March 15, 2020

The DJIA is down another 761 points in pre-market trading this Friday. This suggests the markets are accelerating in what Elliott termed a third wave, the strongest of the five. If so, this first decline won’t end until the low 20s.

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Sunday 03/08/2020
ELAM: The bear emerges
Posted: March 08, 2020

Has the Financial Bubble Popped?

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Sunday 03/01/2020
ELAM: Has financial bubble finally popped?
Posted: March 01, 2020

This column and the website, themarketperspective.com, have cataloged numerous examples of ‘top market’ social mood thinking over the last several weeks. We noted that Schwab’s $26 B stock deal for TD Ameritrade, now that many commissions are zero, was typical of how social mood from the last market bottom is ‘unremembered.’ Even more remarkable was JP Morgan’s purchase of E Trade at $13 billion, declaring the wealth manager was ‘ready to take on Fidelity.’

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Sunday 02/23/2020
ELAM: Markets marking time for now
Posted: February 23, 2020

It shows he’s (Buffett) certainly willing to swing at a big fat pitch when it comes across the plate.

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Sunday 02/16/2020
ELAM: Oil price bounces, shares not so much
Posted: February 16, 2020

Global oil demand is expected to have the first quarterly drop in more than a decade amid a likely slowdown in China due to the Coronavirus.

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Sunday 02/09/2020
ELAM: Dollar surge threatens even modest energy recovery
Posted: February 09, 2020

Liquefied natural gas is at the lowest price on record in Asia at $3 per million British thermal units BTUs. That is down from $20 six years ago.

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Sunday 02/02/2020
ELAM: The jury is out
Posted: February 02, 2020

Crude oil closed at its lowest level since August, copper prices have fallen 12 percent since January 14, and the Chinese Virus Roils Emerging Markets.

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Sunday 01/26/2020
ELAM: Dems, energy rally ends
Posted: January 26, 2020

A slide in oil prices pushed shares of energy companies in the broad index down 4.7% so far this month including a .4% fall Thursday.

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Sunday 01/19/2020
ELAM: Dems, what’s the problem?
Posted: January 19, 2020

The vote was 89-10 as an overwhelming majority of senators of both parties supported the agreement, as expected. Last month, the House of Representatives approved the revised agreement by a similarly wide margin.

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Sunday 01/12/2020
ELAM: Oil prices consolidate, a bottom for natural gas?
Posted: January 12, 2020

Crude futures edged down Thursday to their lowest level in four weeks.  

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Sunday 01/05/2020
ELAM: US attacks, oil price jumps 2.6%
Posted: January 05, 2020

The US preemptively struck the Baghdad airport killing Major General Qassim Soleinani. The US claimed he and his men were responsible for the deaths of American and coalition forces.

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Saturday 12/28/2019
ELAM: Tenet Four of Socionomics
Posted: December 28, 2019

Our opening quotes refer to the wild swings in both stock and energy markets since Year 2000.  In years 2000, 2008, and 2019 the NASD registered 5,000, 3,000 and now 9,000 (peak numbers are rounded). The aftermath of 5,000 and 3,000 did not end well. That is the reason for our second quote above. In the midst of all this excitement (see Dirty Harry, bank robber scene), investors fail to remember the past and are swept away by the present (CNBC, markets are at record highs!).

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Sunday 12/22/2019
ELAM: Crude oil and stocks on hold
Posted: December 22, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 12/15/2019
ELAM: Buy low sell high, why so difficult?
Posted: December 15, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 12/08/2019
ELAM: All Quiet on the Energy and Stock Front
Posted: December 08, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 12/01/2019
ELAM: Social mood goes ballistic
Posted: December 01, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/24/2019
ELAM: Energy starts to shine, stocks rest
Posted: November 24, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/17/2019
ELAM: Another Week, Another Stock Market High
Posted: November 17, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/10/2019
ELAM: Markets shrug off bad news, move higher
Posted: November 10, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/03/2019
ELAM: Too much of a good thing?
Posted: November 03, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 10/27/2019
ELAM: Let’s get serious about Sen. Warren
Posted: October 27, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 10/20/2019
ELAM: Energy Prices Headed for November Low
Posted: October 20, 2019

Excerpts from energy shares decline faster than oil prices

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Sunday 10/13/2019
ELAM: Seasonal weakness
Posted: October 13, 2019

"OPEC and its allies are considering deeper oil output cuts ahead of their December meeting …: the narrative continues to be gloomy”

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DAILY OIL PRICE: September 25

  • Crude Oil: 40.25   (-0.06).
  • Nymex MTD AVG:  39.5822.
  • Natural Gas: 2.139   (-0.109).
  • Gasoline: 1.2142   (+0.0185).
  • Spreads: November/December   (-0.26)   December/January   (-0.30).
  • Plains WTI Posting: 36.75   (0.00).
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