• July 7, 2020

Odessa American: Dennis Elam

Dennis Elam

ELAM: Economy is on the mend

Five Million new jobs were created in May, record numbers

Sunday 06/28/2020
ELAM: Important test ahead for markets
Posted: June 28, 2020

FED Sets Caps on Bank Payouts amid $700 B Loss Threat

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Wednesday 06/24/2020
ELAM: Markets begin next leg down
Posted: June 24, 2020

The long bull market topped Feb. 12 and the first leg down to DJIA 18,000 ended March 23.

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Sunday 06/21/2020
ELAM: Stock prices not as high as you think
Posted: June 21, 2020

Major stock indexes have climbed 40% from their March lows. But the march has been uneven.

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Sunday 06/14/2020
ELAM: Wave three down begins
Posted: June 14, 2020

So despite watching our cities burn down on the evening news reports, the stock and oil markets follow their own course. Markets are soaring despite the negative mood on television and lost businesses to mob violence. This is a dangerous combination in defiance of social mood theory. Be careful out there.

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Sunday 05/31/2020
ELAM: Negative mood on the rise
Posted: May 31, 2020

More than 40 million Americans, the equivalent of one worker in four, have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic began in mid March.

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Sunday 05/24/2020
ELAM: Texas reopens
Posted: May 24, 2020

Never Fight the FED

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Sunday 05/17/2020
ELAM: What is really wrong?
Posted: May 17, 2020

About 36.5 million people have filed unemployment applications in the past eight weeks.

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Sunday 05/10/2020
ELAM: Virus ripples higher ed
Posted: May 10, 2020

The world economy has been slowing at least since the 2007-09 financial crisis. The virus shut down has reduced unemployment to 1930 levels. Let’s take a quick look.

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Sunday 05/03/2020
ELAM: Depends on What You think is Normal
Posted: May 03, 2020

When do you think things will return to normal?

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Sunday 04/26/2020
ELAM: Narrowing breadth and an interdependent economy
Posted: April 26, 2020

Despite a recent run up in stock prices for large, mainly tech-based stocks, there is continued carnage beneath the surface of indices. The five largest stocks make up over 20 percent of the S&P, the highest level in decades, and their combined worth is equal to the bottom 350 companies in the S&P combined. While the S&P is down just under 15 percent for the year, the equal-weighted index is down almost 25 percent, and the small-cap index is down over 35 percent.

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Tuesday 04/21/2020
ELAM: Crude oil kicks off deflationary spiral
Posted: April 21, 2020

Definition of McGuffin

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Sunday 04/19/2020
ELAM: Oil cracks $20, stocks continue rally
Posted: April 19, 2020

The oil market is currently undergoing a historic shock that is abrupt, extreme and at global scale.

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Sunday 04/12/2020
ELAM: Counter-trend rally ending
Posted: April 12, 2020

Let’s begin with a few anecdotal statistics.

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Sunday 04/05/2020
ELAM: Oil prices bounce big as talks mount
Posted: April 05, 2020

Even with OPEC on board that is a phenomenal amount of oil and it will be very difficult to get everyone on board.

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Sunday 03/29/2020
ELAM: Oil prices still pressured
Posted: March 29, 2020

Never let a crisis go to waste.

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Sunday 03/22/2020
ELAM: Don’t get complacent quite yet
Posted: March 22, 2020

What I am trying to do is prevent the oil and gas sector from disappearing over the next 18 months

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Sunday 03/15/2020
ELAM: What happened to my 401K?
Posted: March 15, 2020

The DJIA is down another 761 points in pre-market trading this Friday. This suggests the markets are accelerating in what Elliott termed a third wave, the strongest of the five. If so, this first decline won’t end until the low 20s.

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Sunday 03/08/2020
ELAM: The bear emerges
Posted: March 08, 2020

Has the Financial Bubble Popped?

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Sunday 03/01/2020
ELAM: Has financial bubble finally popped?
Posted: March 01, 2020

This column and the website, themarketperspective.com, have cataloged numerous examples of ‘top market’ social mood thinking over the last several weeks. We noted that Schwab’s $26 B stock deal for TD Ameritrade, now that many commissions are zero, was typical of how social mood from the last market bottom is ‘unremembered.’ Even more remarkable was JP Morgan’s purchase of E Trade at $13 billion, declaring the wealth manager was ‘ready to take on Fidelity.’

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Sunday 02/23/2020
ELAM: Markets marking time for now
Posted: February 23, 2020

It shows he’s (Buffett) certainly willing to swing at a big fat pitch when it comes across the plate.

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Sunday 02/16/2020
ELAM: Oil price bounces, shares not so much
Posted: February 16, 2020

Global oil demand is expected to have the first quarterly drop in more than a decade amid a likely slowdown in China due to the Coronavirus.

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Sunday 02/09/2020
ELAM: Dollar surge threatens even modest energy recovery
Posted: February 09, 2020

Liquefied natural gas is at the lowest price on record in Asia at $3 per million British thermal units BTUs. That is down from $20 six years ago.

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Sunday 02/02/2020
ELAM: The jury is out
Posted: February 02, 2020

Crude oil closed at its lowest level since August, copper prices have fallen 12 percent since January 14, and the Chinese Virus Roils Emerging Markets.

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Sunday 01/26/2020
ELAM: Dems, energy rally ends
Posted: January 26, 2020

A slide in oil prices pushed shares of energy companies in the broad index down 4.7% so far this month including a .4% fall Thursday.

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Sunday 01/19/2020
ELAM: Dems, what’s the problem?
Posted: January 19, 2020

The vote was 89-10 as an overwhelming majority of senators of both parties supported the agreement, as expected. Last month, the House of Representatives approved the revised agreement by a similarly wide margin.

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Sunday 01/12/2020
ELAM: Oil prices consolidate, a bottom for natural gas?
Posted: January 12, 2020

Crude futures edged down Thursday to their lowest level in four weeks.  

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Sunday 01/05/2020
ELAM: US attacks, oil price jumps 2.6%
Posted: January 05, 2020

The US preemptively struck the Baghdad airport killing Major General Qassim Soleinani. The US claimed he and his men were responsible for the deaths of American and coalition forces.

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Saturday 12/28/2019
ELAM: Tenet Four of Socionomics
Posted: December 28, 2019

Our opening quotes refer to the wild swings in both stock and energy markets since Year 2000.  In years 2000, 2008, and 2019 the NASD registered 5,000, 3,000 and now 9,000 (peak numbers are rounded). The aftermath of 5,000 and 3,000 did not end well. That is the reason for our second quote above. In the midst of all this excitement (see Dirty Harry, bank robber scene), investors fail to remember the past and are swept away by the present (CNBC, markets are at record highs!).

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Sunday 12/22/2019
ELAM: Crude oil and stocks on hold
Posted: December 22, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 12/15/2019
ELAM: Buy low sell high, why so difficult?
Posted: December 15, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 12/08/2019
ELAM: All Quiet on the Energy and Stock Front
Posted: December 08, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 12/01/2019
ELAM: Social mood goes ballistic
Posted: December 01, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/24/2019
ELAM: Energy starts to shine, stocks rest
Posted: November 24, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/17/2019
ELAM: Another Week, Another Stock Market High
Posted: November 17, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/10/2019
ELAM: Markets shrug off bad news, move higher
Posted: November 10, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 11/03/2019
ELAM: Too much of a good thing?
Posted: November 03, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 10/27/2019
ELAM: Let’s get serious about Sen. Warren
Posted: October 27, 2019

Biden’s early lead is evaporating and let’s face it, the hard Democrat left never really wanted him. He spent one million dollars on private jets in just one quarter. 

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Sunday 10/20/2019
ELAM: Energy Prices Headed for November Low
Posted: October 20, 2019

Excerpts from energy shares decline faster than oil prices

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Sunday 10/13/2019
ELAM: Seasonal weakness
Posted: October 13, 2019

"OPEC and its allies are considering deeper oil output cuts ahead of their December meeting …: the narrative continues to be gloomy”

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Sunday 10/06/2019
ELAM: Markets slide as negative mood intensifies
Posted: October 06, 2019

Thursday Oct. 3, 2019 9:30 AM CST

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Sunday 09/29/2019
ELAM: Ho hum, it’s September
Posted: September 29, 2019

First let’s examine the landscape in Washington, D.C. The Democrats have never attempted to understand why 63 million voters said yes to Trump. Instead they have done everything to overturn that election. Obstruction of justice, Russian collusion, Stormy Daniels, and now, a conversation with the President of the Ukraine. Rather than mount a serious campaign on issues, the idea now is to impeach the President

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Sunday 09/22/2019
ELAM: Oil pops on attack, bullish mode returns
Posted: September 22, 2019

Last week we noted that oil was just mired in the mid-50s, not showing any real action. Apparently that comment did not go unnoticed in Tehran. Iran launched an attack on a Saudi processing plant. That knocked the world production down about 5%. Recall that the United States has convinced most countries to embargo or refuse to buy Iranian oil. This is in retaliation for Iran’s backing of terrorists and our pulling out of the Iran nuke deal.

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Sunday 09/15/2019
ELAM: Stocks creep higher, nat gas jumps, the legend of Boone
Posted: September 15, 2019

T. Boone Pickens passed from this life at age 91 this past week. He is being heralded in the press as a corporate raider. Really?

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Sunday 09/08/2019
ELAM: Really this time we really mean it — probably, maybe
Posted: September 08, 2019

China and the United States on Thursday agreed to hold high-level talks in early October in Washington, cheering investors hoping for a trade war thaw as new U.S. tariffs on Chinese consumer goods chip away at global growth.

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Sunday 09/01/2019
ELAM: Markets at critical juncture
Posted: September 01, 2019

I have been expecting lower oil and stock price. The main reason is that both have been falling together. And the Art of the Deal President alternately threatens some measure, the market drops hundreds of points, and then he makes a conciliatory gesture (Xi is a great guy but Friday he was our enemy) and then the market bounces a couple of hundred points back up. Finally September – October are seasonally weak periods for the stock market. Panics have typically occurred in October such as 19259 and 2008.

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Sunday 08/25/2019
ELAM: The tariff war is not working
Posted: August 25, 2019

When President Trump casually announced that tariff trade wars were easy to win, we warned that would not be the case. After a stunning two-year rally, the markets are now mired in verbal insults, mostly from our side.

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Sunday 08/18/2019
ELAM: Deflation on hand
Posted: August 18, 2019

The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2 percent yesterday. JC Penny is trading at 59 cents, may be de-listed from the New York Stock Exchange, and will begin selling second hand clothes with thredUp. Energy Service XES not only fell below $8 as predicted, it traded under $7 yesterday, a new low.

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Sunday 08/11/2019
ELAM: Interpreting the News
Posted: August 11, 2019

Consider this ‘news’ all from the same article in today’s Wall Street Journal.

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Sunday 08/04/2019
ELAM: Oil and stocks tank, gold soars
Posted: August 04, 2019

Energy service companies continue to struggle. The XES ETF already trades beneath its 2009 panic low. Now trading  at a mere $8.79, it looks to re-test its May low of $8.50.

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Sunday 07/28/2019
ELAM: Refiners rolling over, metals chug upward
Posted: July 28, 2019

Valero reports a 27 percent drop in second quarter earnings. The refiner was forced to process more expensive crude, cutting into margins.

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DAILY OIL PRICE: July 2

  • Crude Oil: 40.65   (+0.83).
  • Nymex MTD AVG:  40.4840.
  • Natural Gas: 1.734   (+0.063).
  • Gasoline: 1.2592   (+0.0423).
  • Spreads: August/September   (-0.11)   September/October   (-0.15).
  • Plains WTI Posting: 37.25   (+1.00).
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