• November 10, 2019

ELAM: Ho hum, it’s September - Odessa American: Business

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ELAM: Ho hum, it’s September

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Posted: Sunday, September 29, 2019 5:00 am

First let’s examine the landscape in Washington, D.C. The Democrats have never attempted to understand why 63 million voters said yes to Trump. Instead they have done everything to overturn that election. Obstruction of justice, Russian collusion, Stormy Daniels, and now, a conversation with the President of the Ukraine. Rather than mount a serious campaign on issues, the idea now is to impeach the President

The Constitution is specific with regards to an impeachment. In the Nixon and Clinton cases, the House had a roll call vote to allow the Judiciary Committee to begin an investigation. No such vote has been held.

Tip O’Neil realized a one-sided attack on Nixon would never work. Instead, he laid back until Republicans were also concerned about an abuse of Presidential power.  Now though, Nancy Pelosi has not called for a roll call vote. One reason is that it would be a lopsided vote, Democrats versus Republicans. And if the vote comes to pass, which looks 50-50, the Senate would probably not muster 678 votes to convict.

No doubt most Americans, given the liberal press hullaballoo, think an impeachment is underway. But that is not the case.  And it appears Joe Biden and son Hunter may be much worse off for all of this than Trump. Already there are predictions of the demise of the Biden campaign.

And the markets do not seem worried. The DJIA finally vaulted over the 26,400 level. The index is now back testing that breakout. I suspect most of the momentum of the up move in stocks is behind us. 

We have nothing ahead but an Impeachment Congress for the next 11 months. Wall Street is recoiling over the prospect of a Warren or Sanders nomination. And so here we sit.

Words matter. It is regrettable that the Republicans started an impeachment process on Clinton without the votes needed. Now a strong word, impeachment, is being bandied about for Trump and Cavanaugh just because the Democrats lost in both cases. 

Is this the future? Every every time the Democrats lose they want to overturn the vote? Markets dislike uncertainty. And that is all we have with this half-hearted impeachment talk. During the Nixon impeachment the stock market lost half its value in two years.

Gold is down $20 today. That is probably the start of a correction.

As noted in this space, oil prices for WTIC seem mired in the mid-50s.

Prices for refiners are firming as we thought. Valero is in the mid-80s and CRAK the refiner ETF is improving.

The rig count is down in the Permian Basin. But both the Permian and Eagle Ford seem to be doing well.

September and October are seasonally weak months for the markets. Expect the correction to continue amid endless attacks on the President.

Odessa, TX

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