Still going

With national news focusing on bailouts and woeful economic news, the ripple is bound to be felt in the Permian Basin. It's just that nobody seems to be able to predict how and when or even if the economy will soften here.

"I wish someone could tell me that specifically - if and when it's going to occur," Odessa Assistant City Manager James Zentner said.

Odessa's January check of $1,891,617.35 rose 8.1 percent from January 2008. The city of Odessa will pocket $1,513,293.88 of the check while the Odessa Development Corp. will get $378,323.47. It's the 38th consecutive increase for Odessa when checks are compared against the previous year.

The state comptroller sent a check for $2,942,785.42 to Midland. The city keeps about $1.96 million of that total with the rest being split between the Midland Development Corporation and the corporation paying for the sports complex that includes Grandé Stadium. It's the 64th straight month that Midland has seen an increase.

Both Zentner and Midland Director of Finance Bob McNaughton were cautious about making predictions about what the future may hold. Both did mention that anecdotal evidence suggests that the December shopping season was a good one in the Basin.

"A gut feeling, I think Christmas was OK," McNaughton said. "I don't know what January will bring."

Zentner said he shared the sentiment.

"Whenever I went shopping there were plenty of folks around," he said, adding that it's hard to predict retail sales just from the number of shoppers. "They may spend $5 where last year they spent $50."

Both men pointed to the recent upswing in oil prices as a possible positive for the Basin's economy. Higher oil prices could keep the oil-based economy here revving at a higher pace than the rest of the nation.

January sales tax checks underscore the uncertainty in the market. While most Permian Basin communities posted increases of some sort over January 2008, the uptick was neither uniform nor universal.

The positive news may have been as small as a 2.4 percent increase in Kermit or as large as 70,7 percent in Goldsmith, 56.7 percent in Crane or 86.2 percent in Presidio. The negative news had Lamesa, McCamey and Stanton in the list of communities that saw decreases.

Winkler County also serves as a microcosm for the entire Basin. While Wickett's check was down 28.5 percent compared to last January, Wink's check went up 34 percent from a year ago.

"We'll just hang on and wait and see," McNaughton said. "It's been a great ride while it's been happening though."

Zentner said that the January increase wasn't as big a jump as the past few months have been for Odessa and that may be a sign the economy is slowing. Still, he wasn't ready to make any predictions.

"It's really confusing out there," he said.

By the numbers

Here is a look at January sales tax checks for area cities and how they compare to January 2008:

City                Check             Pct. Change

Alpine             $93,273.91       up 19.5

Andrews         $314,368.94      up 37.9

Big Lake         $93,560.42        up 51.2

Big Spring       $508,477.62      up 33.2

Crane             $57,406.77        up 56.7

Fort Stockton  $229,808.40      up 24.5

Goldsmith       $22,190.51        up 70.7

Grandfalls       $1,614.38          down 12.1

Kermit            $44,206.03        up 2.4

Lamesa          $85,200.08        down 8.6

Marfa              $20,025.87        up 6.2

McCamey       $23,585.02        down 8.7

Midland           $2,942,785.42   up 11.7

Monahans       $146,413.50      up 30.3

Odessa           $1,891,617.35   up 8.1

Pecos             $130,985.28      down 0.5

Presidio           $36,103.84       up 86.2

Pyote              $1,095.43         down 7.6

Rankin             $7,805.28         up 50.1

Seminole          $103,621.51     up 37.5

Stanton            $20,717.82       down 14

Toyah               $911.87           up 31

Wickett             $10,025.11      down 28.5

Wink                 $14,543.65      up 34